The Answer Gap Index™ · Edition 1 · September 2026

Who AI recommends is not who Google ranks.

We asked Google’s AI Overview, Google’s AI Mode, ChatGPT and Perplexity to name the best local business, 720 times. Then we checked every business they named against Google’s map pack and top 10 for the same search.

  • 720 AI answers
  • 4 engines
  • 12 business types
  • 3 cities
  • 5 runs each

The Answer Gap Index™ is our ongoing measurement of the gap between who search engines rank and who AI recommends. Edition 1 reports six measures, not a single score.

Free · three minutes · no email. See which of six gaps costs you the most booked jobs, including whether buyers can find you.

Ghost Winners™

60.5%

of the businesses AI recommended were in neither Google’s map pack nor its organic top 10.

Ghost WinnersIn the map packTop 10 only

Base: 673 recommended businesses, each checked against five captures of the same city’s search results.

TL;DR

The short version

Tap any number for the full finding.

  1. 0160.5%of the businesses AI recommended weren’t in Google’s map pack or top 10.Finding 01 ↓
  2. 0236%of ChatGPT’s #1 picks were Ghost Winners™ — businesses Google didn’t rank.Finding 02 ↓
  3. 0336%vs 93%of searches showed Google’s AI Overview. Google’s AI Mode answered 93%.Finding 03 ↓
  4. 0428%of the time, ChatGPT kept the same #1 pick across five identical runs.Finding 04 ↓
  5. 056%of the time, ChatGPT, Perplexity and AI Mode agreed on the #1 business.Finding 05 ↓
  6. 067%of ChatGPT’s picks cited the business’s own website.Finding 06 ↓
Take the data with youFree to share and cite with a link back to this page. Summary report PDF · 2 pages How we measured it ↓

Cite this study

Andrew Ryan Marketing (2026). The Answer Gap Index™, Edition 1: 720 AI answers compared with Google’s local rankings. Data collected 28 September 2026. https://andrewryanmarketing.com/answer-gap-index/

Copy a link to one finding:

Use it freely. Just link back. The numbers, charts and data are licensed CC BY 4.0: share or adapt them with credit to Andrew Ryan Marketing and a link to this page.

Edition 2 is collected 26–30 October 2026 with the same questions, cities and engines, so every measure can be compared.

01

Ranking helps. It doesn’t decide who gets named.

For every business an engine recommended, we checked whether it held a spot in Google’s local 3-pack or organic top 10 for the same search — in any of five captures. The orange share is the businesses that held neither. We call them Ghost Winners™.

ChatGPT310 businesses
58.1%Ghost Winners
Google AI Mode372 businesses
53.2%Ghost Winners
Perplexity244 businesses
49.6%Ghost Winners
Google AI Overview148 businesses
23.0%Ghost Winners

In the map packTop 10 onlyNeither (Ghost Winner)

The short answer: 58.1% of the local businesses ChatGPT recommended were in neither Google’s map pack nor its organic top 10 for the same search. Across all four engines, 60.5% of the 673 businesses named were Ghost Winners — and the rate held across home services (65.5%), professional services (57.3%) and B2B services (59.3%).

Observed by Andrew Ryan Marketing, 28 September 2026. Unique businesses per city and engine; 60 businesses we could not resolve to a website are excluded, which lowers the Ghost rate rather than raising it.

Bar chart: share of AI-recommended local businesses outside Google’s 3-pack and organic top 10 — ChatGPT 58.1%, Google AI Mode 53.2%, Perplexity 49.6%, Google AI Overview 23.0%

Free chart for download

Download PNG
02

The #1 pick is often a Ghost Winner.

The first business an answer names is the one a buyer sees first. We checked how often that first pick held no map-pack or top-10 spot for the same search.

Google’s AI Overview is the exception: its first pick was in the map pack 73% of the time.

  • ChatGPT62 of 172 answers36%
  • Perplexity57 of 163 answers35%
  • Google AI Mode45 of 161 answers28%
  • Google AI Overview5 of 59 answers8.5%
Bar chart: share of AI answers whose #1 business was outside Google’s 3-pack and organic top 10 — ChatGPT 36%, Perplexity 35%, Google AI Mode 28%, Google AI Overview 8.5%

Free chart for download

Download PNG
03

Google’s AI Overview mostly sits these searches out.

On “best [business] in [city]” searches, the classic AI Overview appeared about a third of the time. Google’s AI Mode answered almost every time.

So the AI answer a local buyer is most likely to get from Google comes from AI Mode, where 53.2% of the businesses named were Ghost Winners.

36%AI Overview shown65 of 180 searches
93%AI Mode answered167 of 180 searches
04

The top spot rarely holds.

We asked each engine the same question five times. Each strip below is the 36 city-and-business pairs; a lit square is a pair where the same business came first every time.

Perplexity was measured through its API at default settings, not the consumer app, which likely explains its steadiness. The AI Overview never appeared in all five runs for any pair, so it has no lock rate.

  • ChatGPTsame #1 every run · 10 of 3628%
  • Google AI Modesame #1 every run · 1 of 363%
  • Perplexity (API)same #1 every run · 27 of 3675%
05

The engines don’t agree with each other.

Same city, same question, same moment. We compared ChatGPT, Perplexity and Google AI Mode side by side across the 160 runs where all three named businesses.

Being named by one engine says little about the other two. AI visibility has to be measured engine by engine.

6%of runs: all three put the same business first.10 of 160 runs
52%of runs: no business in common at all.83 of 160 runs
06

AI mostly takes other sites’ word for it.

For every recommendation, we checked whether the answer cited the business’s own website, or only other sites — directories, “best of” lists, review platforms and forums.

The short answer: only 7% of ChatGPT’s local recommendations came with a citation to the business’s own site. The proof it leaned on lived somewhere else.

Answer cites the business’s own site

  • ChatGPT62 of 8937%
  • Google AI Mode159 of 74121%
  • Google AI Overview123 of 22754%
  • Perplexity (API)637 of 82477%

Counted per recommendation, across all runs. Engines don’t tie each citation to a specific business, so this measures whether the answer as a whole cited the business’s own site.

Bar chart: share of AI-named businesses whose own website was cited in the answer — Perplexity 77%, Google AI Overview 54%, Google AI Mode 21%, ChatGPT 7%

Free chart for download

Download PNG

Follow-up study · Why they get named

What AI-named businesses have in common.

We took the businesses Google already showed in its map results for the same 36 searches, then compared the ones AI named with the ones it never named — 25 factors each, with the method fixed before we collected anything.

  • 106vs 64median Google reviews: named vs never named.
  • 9vs 6reviews in the last six months, out of their newest 20.
  • 206vs 164other websites linking to them (referring domains).
  • 4.9vs 4.9star rating. No difference at all.
  • 0.66Reviews, recent reviews and links, trained on two cities, predicted who AI named in the third. 0.5 is a coin flip; 1.0 is perfect. Star rating alone: 0.58.
  • 39%of the sites ChatGPT cited were “best of” and ranking lists. For Google’s AI answers, about half were businesses’ own websites.
  • ~50%of ChatGPT’s and Perplexity’s picks were named on a third-party page the answer cited. A floor: 36% of those pages blocked our reader.

Made no difference

  • Star rating
  • Schema markup
  • Homepage length
  • Knowledge panel
  • Directory listings
  • Reddit mentions
  • Owner replies
  • Review wording
  • City in page title

And the Ghost Winners™? On these signals they looked like the named businesses Google did show. What set them apart was distance: a median 6.8 miles from the city-centre search point, against 1.7. AI recommendations appeared less constrained by distance than Google’s local results — but moving the search point explained only part of the gap (see Method).

Follow-up study, same 36 searches, 28 September 2026. 482 businesses: 246 Google showed and AI named, 117 Google showed and AI never named, 119 strong Ghost Winners. Medians shown. These are correlations: they show what AI-named businesses have in common, not what makes AI name them.

What it means for a local business

Page one gets you found.
It doesn’t get you named.

  • A

    Check the answer, not just the rank.

    A ranking report can’t tell you whether AI names you. The only way to know is to ask the engines your buyers use, the way your buyers ask.

  • B

    Your proof has to live off your site.

    AI leaned on directories, lists, reviews and forums far more than on the business’s own website. What others say about you is the evidence it reads.

  • C

    One screenshot proves nothing.

    The #1 answer changed from run to run and from engine to engine. Being named has to be measured repeatedly, on every engine that matters.

Uncover Your Revenue Gap

Free · three minutes · no email. Four numbers you already know show which of six gaps costs you the most booked jobs.
Already know your gap? Book Your 20-Minute Gap Review →

Method

How we measured it

The method was fixed and written down on 28 September 2026, before any data was collected. Every Edition 1 number on this page comes from that single collection. The follow-up study section is labelled as such.

The study

Question
“best [business type] in [city, state]” — the same wording on every engine, no follow-ups.
Engines
Google AI Overview, Google AI Mode, ChatGPT and Perplexity (sonar, via API with web search).
Business types
Home: roofer, plumber, HVAC, electrician. Professional: family law attorney, CPA firm, dentist, physical therapist. B2B: commercial cleaning, managed IT, business insurance broker, commercial printing.
Cities
Denver CO, Boise ID and Chattanooga TN — a large, a mid-size and a smaller metro.
Runs
Five per city, business type and engine: 720 answers, all on 28 September 2026, US English, desktop.
Rankings
Google’s local 3-pack and organic top 10 for the same search and city, captured five times.

What to keep in mind

  • The Ghost Winner count is conservative: a business counts as ranked if it appeared in the map pack or top 10 in any of five captures.
  • Businesses were identified from each answer, then matched to their own websites; the 60 we could not resolve (8%) are left out of the Ghost rate.
  • Search location, tested: Edition 1’s Google results came from each city’s center. We then re-ran Google from four more points about six miles north, south, east and west. From all five points, 54.7% of AI-recommended businesses still weren’t in Google’s top-3 map box or top 10. About half of those do appear in Google Maps’ positions 4–10; 27% weren’t in Maps’ top 10 from any point.
  • ChatGPT and Perplexity were located to the US, with the city in the question. Google was located to each city.
  • Perplexity was measured through its API, not the consumer app.
  • One day, three cities, desktop only. This is a snapshot; the next edition re-runs the same questions so changes over time can be measured.
  • Collected through the DataForSEO API. None of the businesses in the answers are Andrew Ryan Marketing clients.

The six measures, defined

Six measures, not a single score. Every edition reports them the same way, so the numbers can be compared over time.

  1. Ghost Winner RateThe share of AI-recommended businesses that were in neither Google’s map pack nor its organic top 10 for the same search.Edition 1: 60.5% · 407 of 673 businesses
  2. Ghost Top-Pick RateHow often an engine’s #1 recommendation was a Ghost Winner™.Edition 1: ChatGPT 36% · 62 of 172 answers
  3. AI Overview Trigger RateHow often Google showed an AI Overview for the search.Edition 1: 36% · 65 of 180 searches
  4. Top-Answer Lock RateHow often the same business was named #1 in every run of the same question.Edition 1: ChatGPT 28% · 10 of 36 cells
  5. Cross-Engine AgreementHow often ChatGPT, Perplexity and Google AI Mode named the same #1 business.Edition 1: 6% · 10 of 160 city-runs
  6. Evidence Ownership RateHow often the AI answer cited the recommended business’s own website, rather than only other sites. Measured per answer, not per citation.Edition 1: ChatGPT 7% · 62 of 893 recommendations
Download the summary (PDF, 2 pages)

The PDF is a branded two-page summary. The CSV has 144 rows: every city, business type and engine, with runs, businesses named, Ghost Winners and how often the #1 pick repeated. Free to use with a link back to this page.

Questions

Frequently asked

Does ranking on Google get a local business recommended by ChatGPT?

Not reliably. In the Answer Gap Index (720 AI answers, September 2026), 58.1% of the businesses ChatGPT recommended were in neither Google’s local 3-pack nor the organic top 10 for the same search. Ranking helps, but it does not decide who AI names.

What is a Ghost Winner?

A business an AI engine recommends while it holds neither a Google local 3-pack spot nor an organic top-10 result for the same search. In Edition 1 of the Answer Gap Index, 60.5% of the 673 AI-recommended businesses we could resolve were Ghost Winners.

What do local businesses that AI recommends have in common?

In our follow-up study of 482 businesses (September 2026), among businesses Google already showed in its map results, the ones AI named had more Google reviews (median 106 vs 64), more recent reviews and more websites linking to them than the ones it never named. Star rating, schema markup and homepage length made no difference. These are correlations, not proof of cause.

Do ChatGPT, Perplexity and Google AI recommend the same local businesses?

Rarely. Across 160 city-runs, ChatGPT, Perplexity and Google AI Mode named the same business first 6% of the time, and in 52% of runs they had no recommended business in common.

Where does ChatGPT get its local business recommendations?

Mostly from other websites. Only 7% of ChatGPT’s recommendations in the study came with a citation to the business’s own site; the rest were supported by third-party sources such as directories, rankings and review sites.

How was the Answer Gap Index measured?

The same prompt, “best [business type] in [city, state]”, was sent to Google AI Overview, Google AI Mode, ChatGPT and Perplexity five times each for 12 business types in Denver, Boise and Chattanooga on September 28, 2026. Named businesses were matched against five captures of Google’s local 3-pack and organic top 10. The method was fixed before data collection.